Modeling the potential range for Lymantria mathura (Moore, 1865) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) in Ukraine

Bondareva, Lesia М.; Klechkovskiy, Yuriy; Titova, Lyudmila

doi:10.48311/jibs.12.01.97

Modeling the potential range for Lymantria mathura (Moore, 1865) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) in Ukraine

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Lesia М. Bondareva ¹

Yuriy Klechkovskiy ²

Lyudmila Titova ²

¹ National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine Faculty of Plant Protection, Biotechnology and Ecology

² Quarantine Station for Grape and Fruit Crops, Institute of Plant Protection of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine

10.48311/jibs.12.01.97

Abstract

The introduction and further spread of the defoliator Lymantria mathura (Moore, 1865), a pest of deciduous and coniferous tree species that is currently absent in Ukraine, poses a potential threat to the country’s ecosystems. This highlights the necessity for a comprehensive risk assessment, considering Ukraine's favorable climatic conditions, the availability of host plants, and the country's active involvement in global trade. The purpose of this study is to model the potential range of L. mathura in Ukraine based on an analysis of the spatial distribution of biological objects, considering environmental and geographical bioclimatic conditions within its current range, and to assess the risk of invasion by this species. Using MapInfo Pro 15.0 (ESTIMap) and IDRISI Selva (Clark Labs) software, it was determined that almost the entire territory of Ukraine is potentially suitable for the acclimatization and settlement of this pest, except for the highlands of the Ukrainian Carpathians, which constitute approximately 1% of the country's total area. The model showed that several of Ukraine's bioclimatic factors, including long-term averages, correspond to those within its current natural range (average annual temperature, temperature of the warmest month, and hydrothermal coefficient). The main limiting factor for the species’ spread is the average annual temperature of the coldest month. The invasion risk of L. mathura and its potential threat to Ukraine’s plant resources were assessed as high. To prevent the pest’s invasion, it is proposed that L. mathura be included in the A1 List (quarantine pests not present in Ukraine) of the "List of Regulated Harmful Organisms in Ukraine," which would prohibit the potential introduction of the pest. Preventing the invasion of L. mathura will support the conservation of Ukraine’s plant resources (both forest and agricultural) and minimize potential economic losses caused by this pest.

Graphical Abstract

Modeling the potential range for Lymantria mathura (Moore, 1865) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) in Ukraine

Keywords

Biological invasions

Pest acclimatization

Quarantine

Rosy gypsy moth

Spatial modeling

Arimoto, M. & Iwaizumi, R. (2014) Identification of Japanese Lymantria species (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae). Based on morphological characteristics of adults. Research Bulletin of the Plant Protection Service Japan, 50, 89–110.

Avtaeva, T.A., Sukhodolskaya, R.A. & Brygadyrenko, V.V. (2021) Modeling the bioclimatic range of Pterostichus melanarius (Coleoptera, Carabidae) in conditions of global climate change. Biosystems diversity, 29 (2), 140–150. https://doi.org/10.15421/012119

Afonin, A.N. & Li, Yu.S. (2011) An ecological-geographical approach based on geographic information technologies in the study of ecology and distribution of biological objects. BioGIS Journal 1, 115.

Bondareva, L.M., Kaliuzhna, M.O., Titova, L.G., Klechkovskiy, Yu.E. & Perkovsky, E.E. (2023) Potential distribution of the invasive species Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera, Flatidae) and perspectives of its classical biocontrol in Ukraine. Zoodiversity, 57 (6), 545–562. https://doi.org/10.15407/zoo2023.06.545

Borzykh, O.I., Klechkovskyi, Yu.E., Titovа, L.G. & Palahina, O.V. (2018) Use of modern computer technologies to determine the possibility of acclimatization of adventitious phytophages in Ukraine during the analysis of phytosanitary risk (PRA). Interdepartmental thematic scientific collection Plant protection and quarantine, 64, 3–10. https://doi.org/10.36495/1606-9773.2018.64.3-10 [In Ukrainian with English summary].

Boukouvala, M., Kavallieratos, N., Skourti, A. & Pons, X. (2022) Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae): current status of biology, ecology, and management in Europe with notes from North America. Insects, 13 (9), 854. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects13090854

Bradshaw, C.J., Leroy, B., Bellard, C., Roiz, D., Albert, C., Fournier, A., Barbet-Massin, M., Salles, J.-M., Simard, F. & Courchamp, F. (2016) Massive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects. Nature Communications, 7 (1), 12986. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12986

CABI (2025) Lymantria mathura (pink gypsy moth). Datasheet (10 December 2020). CABI Compendium, 31809. https://doi.org/10.1079/cabicompendium.31809 [Accessed June 20, 2025]

Davis, E., French, S. & Venette, R. (2005) Mini risk assessment pink gypsy moth, Lymantria mathura Moore [Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae]. USDA: CAPS PRA, 1–31.

EPPO (2004) Report of a pest risk assessment for Lymantria mathura. Doc 05/11593 Available from https://gd.eppo.int/ download/doc/1304_pra_rep_LYMAMA.pdf. [Accessed June 20, 2025]

EPPO (2005) Lymantria mathura. Datasheets on pests are recommended for regulation, 2005: EPPO Bulletin, 35 (3), 464–467. [Accessed June 20, 2025]

EPPO (2025) Lymantria mathura. EPPO data on pests recommended for regulation. https://gd.eppo.int [Accessed June 16, 2025] https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365

Erb, S.L., Bourchier, R.S. & van Frankenhuyzen, K. (2001) Sublethal effects of Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner subsp. kurstaki on Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae). Environmental Entomology, 30 (6), 1174–1181.
https://doi.org/10.1603/0046-225X-30.6.1174

Farrar, R.R., Kennedy, G.G. & Laing, J.E. (1996) Host plant effects on activity of Bacillus thuringiensis against gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). Environmental Entomology, 25 (5), 1215–1220. https://doi.org/10.1093/ee/25.5.1215

Fuester, R.W., Drea, J.J., Gruber, F., Hoyer, H. & Mercadier, G. (1983) Larval parasites and other natural enemies of Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in Burgenland, Austria, and Würzburg, Germany. Environmental Entomology, 12 (3), 724–737. https://doi.org/10.1093/ee/12.3.724

Gould, J.R., Elkinton, J.S. & Wallner, W.E. (1990) Density-dependent suppression of experimentally created gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), Populations by Natural Enemies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 59 (1), 213–233. https://doi.org/10.2307/5169

Heinemann, J.A. & Walker, S. (2019) Environmentally applied nucleic acids and proteins for purposes of engineering changes to genes and other genetic material. Biosafety and Health, 1 (3), 113–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bsheal.2019.09.003

Hu, X., Xu, B., Chen, M., Li, K., Xiao, Y., Liang, S., Zhang, C., Ma, H. & Song, H. (2024) Development and assessment of cutting-edge biotechnologies. Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity, 6, 51–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.001

Hunter, M.D. (2001) Effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on insect-plant interactions. Agricultural and Forest Entomology, 3 (3), 153–159.

Ji, W., Dou, F., Zhang, C., Xiao, Y., Yin, W., Yu, J., Kurenshchikov, D.K., Zhu, Х. & Shi, J. (2023) Improvement in the identification technology for Asian spongy moth, Lymantria dispar Linnaeus, 1758 (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) based on SS-COI. Insects, 14 (1), 94. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14010094

Kaustubh, K., Joshi, R. & Hassan, S.M.M. (2022) Report of occurrence of Lymantria mathura (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) from Saranda Forest Division, Jharkhand, India. Acta Entomology and Zoology, 3 (1), 30–33. https://doi.org/10.33545/27080013.2022.v3.i1a.61

Kushnir, N.V. & Bondareva, L.M. (2022) Propagation, trophic connection, and phenology of Metcalfa pruinosa (Say, 1830) (Auchenorrhyncha: Hemiptera) in N. N. Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Russian Journal of Biological Invasions, 13 (1), 74–80 https://doi.org/10.1134/S207511172201009X

Lee, J.H. & Lee, H.P. (1996) Parasites and phenology of Lymantria mathura Moore (Lymantriidae: Lepidoptera) in Kyonggi Province, Korea. Korean Journal of Entomology, 26 (4), 393–401.

Lindroth, R.L., Klein, K.A., Hemming, J.D. C. & Feuker, A.M. (1997) Variation in temperature and dietary nitrogen affect performance of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.). Physiological Entomology, 22 (1), 55–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3032.1997.tb01140.x

Los, S.A., Tereshchenko, L.I., Gayda, Y.І., Ustimenko, P.М., Yatsyk, R.М., Chernyavsky, М.V., Neyko, І.S., Тоrosova, L.О., Dutka, М.М., Polakova, L.V. et al. (2014) State of forest genetic resources in Ukraine. Kharkiv, Ukraine: Planeta‑Print, 138 р. [In Ukrainian]

Mastro, V.C., Munson, A.S., Wang, B., Freyman, T. & Humble, L.M. (2021) History of the Asian Lymantria species program: A unique pathway risk mitigation strategy. Journal of Integrated Pest Management, 12 (1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1093/jipm/pmab023

Melo-Merino, S.M., Reyes-Bonilla, H. & Lira-Noriega, A. (2020) Ecological niche models and species distribution models in marine environments: A literature review and spatial analysis of evidence. Ecological Modelling, 415, 108837. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108837

Meshkova, V., Borysenko, O., Kucheryavenko, T., Skrylnyk, Y., Davydenko, K. & Holusa, J. (2023) Potential westward spread of emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from eastern Ukraine. Forests, 14 (4), 736. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14040736

Milanović, S., Lazarević, J., Popović, Z., Kostić, M. & Stojanović, D. (2014) Preference and performance of the larvae of Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) on three species of European oaks. European Journal of Entomology, 111 (3), 341–347. https://doi.org/10.14411/eje.2014.037

Naimi, B. & Araujo, M.B. (2016) SDM: a reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modelling. Ecography, 39, 368–375. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01881

Oberemok, V.V., Laikova, K.V., Gal’chinsky, N.V., Useinov, R.Z., Novikov, I.A., Temirova, Z.Z., Shumskykh, M.N., Krasnodubets, A.M., Repetskaya, A.I., Dyadichev, V.V. et al. (2019) DNA insecticide developed from the Lymantria dispar 5.8 S ribosomal RNA gene provides a novel biotechnology for plant protection. Scientific Reports, 9 (1), 6197. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-42688-8

Régnière, J. & Nealis, V. (2002) Modelling seasonality of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), to evaluate probability of its persistence in novel environments. The Canadian Entomologist, 134 (6), 805–824. https://doi.org/10.4039/n02-041

Penjor, U. Kaszta, Z., Macdonald, D.W. & Cushman, S.A. (2021) Prioritizing areas for conservation outside the existing protected area network in Bhutan: the use of multi-species, multi-scale habitat suitability models. Landscape Ecology, 36, 1281–1309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01225-7

Roychoudhury, N., Singh, R.B. & Kumar, R.M. (2020) Occurrence of Lymantria mathura in sal forests of Odisha. Van Sangyan, 7 (10), 27–31.

Ruiu, L., Satta, A., Floris, I. & Delrio, G. (2012) Comparative applications of Bacillus thuringiensis formulations against Lymantria dispar in Sardinian forests. Bulletin of Insectology, 65 (2), 251–257.

Seebens, H., Meyerson, L.A., Rahlao, S.J., Lenzner, B., Tricarico, E., Aleksanyan, A., Courchamp, F., Keskin, E., Saeedi, H., Tawake, A. et al. (2023) Chapter 2: Trends and status of alien and invasive alien species. In: Roy, H.E., Pauchard, A., Stoett, P., Renard Truong, T. (eds) Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control of the Intergovernmental Science‑Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn, Germany, pp. 76–200.

Shumilin, V.P. & Li, Yu.S. (2009) AgroAtlas GIS software. [Online]. http://www.agroatlas.ru [Accessed September 10, 2025]

Sparks, M.E., Blackburn, M.B., Kuhar, D., Gundersen-Rindal, D.E. (2013) Transcriptome response of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) larvae infected with Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki. PLoS ONE, 8 (4), e61190. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0061190

Srivastava, V., Kaur, R. & Mehta, R. (2020) Assessing the potential distribution of Asian gypsy moth in North America using species distribution models. Scientific Reports, 10 (1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57020-7

Volf, M., Fontanilla, A.M., Vanhakylä, S., Abe, T., Libra, M., Kogo, R., Lilip, R., Kamata, N., Murakami, M., Novotny, V., Salminen, J.-P. & Segar, S.T. (2024) High intraspecific variability and previous experience affect polyphenol metabolism in polyphagous Lymantria mathura caterpillars. Ecology and Evolution, 14, e10973. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10973

Zlotina, M.A., Mastro, V.C., Leonard, D.E. & Elkinton, J.S. (1998) Survival and development of Lymantria mathura (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) on North American, Asian, and European tree species get access arrow. Journal of Economic Entomology, 91 (5), 1162–1166. https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/91.5.1162